灰色正交化方法在用电量预测中的仿真研究_王晓佳.pdfVIP

第 22 卷第 10 期 系 统 仿 真 学 报© Vol. 22 No. 10 2010 年 10 月 Journal of System Simulation Oct., 2010 灰色正交化方法在用电量预测中的仿真研究 王晓佳, 杨善林，侯利强，丁 静，徐达宇 (合肥工业大学，合肥 230009) 摘 要：根据灰色正交化方法和马尔可夫链原理，应用 Gauss-Chebyshev 正交化思想预测时序数 据的总体趋势。预测的精度是时变的，而马尔可夫链原理在处理时变的系统过程时具有较好的优势， 选用该方法能更好的解决预测结果的不稳定性。基于此，提出一种用于用电量数据预测的灰色马 尔可夫正交化模型，适用于中短期、数据需求量少且数据振幅较大的动态过程预测。最后用提出 的方法对江苏省2007 年工业用电量进行预测，其结果表明了所提方法的有效性。 关键词：马尔可夫链；灰色模型；Gauss-Chebyshev 公式；用电量预测 中图分类号：N941.5 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1004-731X (2010) 10-2253-04 Simulation of Orthogonalization Prediction Based on Grey Markov Chain for Electricity Consumption WANG Xiao-jia, YANG Shan-lin, HOU Li-qiang, DING Jing, XU Da-yu (Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China) Abstract: The general trend of time series data was predicted with Gauss-Chebyshev orthogonalization theory according to the grey orthogonalization method and the Markov Chain theory. The prediction accuracy is time-varying. However, this approach will better solve the problem of unstable prediction result since Markov chain theory has greater advantages in handling time-varying system process. Based on this, the Markov grey orthogonalization model prediction was proposed for electricity consumption. It is suitable for dynamic process prediction in medium and short term with less data demand and large data fluctuations. Finally, the proposed approach was used to forecast the industrial electricity consumption of Jiangsu Province in 2007, and the results show the effectiveness of this approach.