运输通道新建高速铁路客运量预测md模型-交通运输工程学报-长安.pdfVIP

第5 卷　第3期 交 通 运 输 工 程 学 报 Vol.5　No.3 2005 年9 月 Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering Sept. 2005 :1671-1637(2005)0-3009-3 05 D 1 2 彭　辉 ,王　洁 (1. , 　710064;2. , 　100029) 　:为了准确分析运输通道新建高速铁路未 客运需求,应用经济学效用原理和数学分析方法, 对 D( inimum Drain)预测模型的概念、假设、原理进行了定义和分析,讨论了需求潜在化实现率、旅 行总支付及运输方式选择的机理,并与传统客运量预测方法对通道总的铁路客运需求量预测结果进 行了对比。结果表明,该模型预测运输通道新建高速铁路未 的市场份额为70%以上,预测潜在需求 年增长率比其他方法低 1%,符合近年 交通量的增长规律,这说明 D 模型与传统运量预测模型结 合进行通道运量预测能充分反应通道中各种运输方式的服务水平对其市场份额划分的影响。 :交通规划;运输通道;高速铁路;客运量预测; D 模型 :U293.13　　　:A MD forecasting model of passenger traffic volume for newly-built high-speed railway in transport corridor 1 2 Peng Hui , Wang Jie (1.School of Highway, Chang an University, Xian 710064, China; 2.China Academy of Transportation Sciences of inistry of Communications, Beijing 100029, China) Abstract:In order to accurately analyze the future passenger traffic volume of newly-built high- speed railway in transport corridor, using the utility principle of economics and the analytical method of mathematics, the paper studied the conception, hypothesis and principium of D model, discussed the mechanisms of thepotential demand and requirement achieve ratio, the total payment of travel and the choice of varies transport. The forecasting results of D model and conventional method indicate that the market percentage of newly-built high-speed railway is approximately 70%, the annually increasing ratio of potential demand volume reduces by 1%, which adapt to the change of traffic volume, the way of combining D model with conventional method of traffic volume forecasting ca