WMO登陆台风预报示范项目研究进展-WMOTyphoonLandfall.PDF

气象科技 进展 WMO登陆台风预报示范项目研究进展 雷小途 余晖 （中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030） 摘要：WMO登陆台风预报示范项目（2010—2015年）自2010年立项至今，已建成一个集当今世界主流台风主、客观预 报产品及其性能评估的业务平台。项目通过开展台风预报评估，分析了当前世界上多类先进预报技术的台风路径、强度 和降水预报能力，加深了对台风预报可信度的认识，并在台风预报检验新技术和台风集成预报新技术的研发、应用等方 面取得了突破性进展，初步建立了涵盖确定性和集合预报的台风路径、强度和风雨预报性能评估技术体系，有效地推进 了先进台风预报技术在台风预报业务中的展示和应用。 关键词：台风，预报，评估，示范 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2015.02.003 The Progress of WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project Lei Xiaotu, Yu Hui (Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030) Abstract: The “WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP)” was started in May 2010, with an aim to improve the typhoon landfall forecast service for World Expo 2010 and enhance the ability of forecasters and decision-makers to effectively use products of the most advanced typhoon forecasting techniques in the world. The project continued after the World Expo 2010 and will end in 2015. Up to now, the project has set up a platform integrating the most advanced typhoon forecasting guidance in the world. The forecast guidance for typhoon track, intensity, and precipitation has been evaluated in both real-time and post-season manners, which helps in understanding the reliability of typhoon forecasts. Breakthroughs have been made in terms of new verification techniques for typhoon forecast and new consensus forecast techniques based on available guidance. An evaluation index system has been proposed covering the indices for both the deterministic and probabilistic typhoon forecasts. These efforts have effectively demonstrated and promoted the application of advanced typhoon forecasting techniques in operation. Keywords: Typhoon, Forecast Demonstration, Foreca