Firmdemandstarts强劲的需求开始抵.PDF

Colliers Quarterly Q2 2017 26 July 2017 SHANGHAI | OFFICE 上海 | 写字楼 Firm demand starts 强劲的需求开始抵 to counteract rising 消供应的增长 supply Firm economic growth boosted demand for quality 经济的稳固增长提升了上海第二季度优质写字楼空间的 office space in Shanghai in Q2, reflected in the 需求，由历史最高净吸纳量可见一斑。尽管需求强劲， highest net absorption in ten years. Despite strong 但核心区内新项目的竣工致使其平均空置率上升。然 demand, average vacancy in the CBDs rose due to 而，租金大致保持稳定，同比增长0.7%抑或环比下跌 new completions. Nevertheless, rent was more or 0.3%，至人民币10.3 元 （1.52 美元）每天每平方米。 less flat with 0.7% growth YOY or a 0.3% drop QOQ 2017 年下半年，高力国际预计更多的新增供将进一步推 to RMB10.3 (USD1.52). In H2, Colliers expects new additions to boost average vacancy further and 高平均空置率，并在核心区及次中心租赁市场皆转向租 lead to a modest rent decline by end-2017, as the 户市场之际，导致租金于年末适度下调。展望2018 年之 leasing market shifts to favour tenants in both the 后，虽然新增供应入市步伐将自2019 年起始有所放缓， CBDs and decentralised areas. Beyond 2018, high 但充足的供应仍将影响租金增幅。 availability should still affect rent growth, though the pace of new supply should slow from 2019. Forecast at a glance 预测一览表 Demand 需求 Leasing demand is robust due to the firm 租赁需求在经济强劲的背景下维持稳定，并 economic situation, and is starting to 开始抵消供应增长造成的影响 counteract the impact of rising supply. Supply 供应 We expect a 17% increase in the CBD 高力国际预计2017 年末核心区总存量增幅 total stock by end-2017, and the supply 将达 17%，2018 年新增供应量应将保持充足 should remain heavy in 2018. Vacancy rate 空置率 Vacancy in the CBDs was 12.9% in Q2. 核心区第二季度空置率为12.9%,高力国际预 We expect vacancy to ri