基于正交设计及EFDC模型的湖泊流域总量控制-北京玛格泰克科技.PDFVIP

中国环境科学 2016,36(12) ：3696~3702 China Environmental Science 基于正交设计及 EFDC 模型的湖泊流域总量控制 ——以滇池流域为例 杨澄宇,代 超,伊 璇,陆文涛,郭怀成* (北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京 100871) 摘要：构建了基于正交设计-水质模拟-方案评价的污染物总量控制方案的方法体系,并应用于滇池流域.选择 TN 、TP 作为总量控制指标, 将滇池流域划分为 6 个子区单元,通过设计 5 水平(0%,5%,10%,15%,20%)6 因素的正交试验表,得到 25 种不同削减方案;耦合 EFDC 模型模 拟得到 25 种不同削减情景条件下湖泊水质的 TN 、TP 浓度分布,计算各方案综合营养状态指数(TSI),筛选符合中度富营养化标准 (60TSI( Σ)≤70)的方案,引入数据包络分析(DEA)计算各方案的效率得分,得分最高的方案为最优削减方案.研究表明,滇池的叶绿素 a 平均 浓度与 TP 平均浓度具有极强的相关性,最优方案下滇池流域 6 个子区 TN 、TP 在原排放量的基础上,削减比例均为 20%,15%,10%,5%, 0%,20%. 关键词：污染负荷削减；正交实验设计；EFDC 模型；数据包络分析；滇池流域 中图分类号：X524 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2016)12-3696-07 Total emission control of water pollutant for the lake basin based on orthogonal experimental design and EFDC * Model: A case study of Dianchi Basin. YANG Cheng-yu, DAI Chao, YI Xuan, LU Wen-tao, GUO Huai-cheng (College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China). China Environmental Science, 2016,36(12) ：3696~3702 Abstract ：A systemic method was developed through integrating the orthogonal experimental design,water quality model and evaluation technique.Such method can be used for identifying the optimal total emission control schemes for the Lake Dianchi Basin. Firstly, TN and TP as the evaluating indicators were designed with 5levels (i.e., 0%, 5%, 10%, 15% and 20%, respectively); meanwhile, the entire Basin was divided into 6subareas. Accordingly, the orthogonal design table (6factors and 5levels) was employed and then 25 reduction scenarios would be generated. Secondly, the TN, TP and Chl-a concentration distribution of the Lake could be simulated by the EFDC Model under different reduction scenarios. Then, we could calculate the valu