基于气候相似性的云南烤烟主要化学成分预测.PDFVIP

中国农学通报 2012,28(22):277-281 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 基于气候相似性的云南烤烟主要化学成分预测 钟 楚，朱 勇，李 蒙 （云南省气候中心，昆明650034） 摘 要：为研究利用气象因子预测烤烟品质的问题，采用系统聚类法，以烟叶总糖、还原糖、烟碱、总氮和 蛋白质5 种化学成分为基础，根据平方欧氏距离最小原则，将云南省2004 年全省83 个植烟县烟叶化学 品质分成10种类型，并确定了这10种类型相对应的气象条件。根据“相似气候条件下烟叶化学成分相 近”的理论，计算了2005 年云南省83 个植烟县气象因子与这10种烤烟化学品质类型对应的气象因子之 间的欧氏距离。以距离越小相似性越高的原理，对各县烟叶主要化学成分及品质类型进行预测。结果 表明，总糖、还原糖、烟碱、总氮和蛋白质含量预测的根均方差百分率(RRMSE)分别为8.91% 、10.40% 、 22.31%、10.46%和13.08%。该方法对各化学成分的中值区和高值区预测效果普遍较低值区好。结果说 明，采用该方法预测烟叶化学成分具有一定的可行性。 关键词：烤烟；化学成分；预测；气候相似性；欧氏距离 中图分类号：S572 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2011-3734 ForecastingforMainChemicalCompositionsofFlue-curedTobaccoinYunnan BasedonClimateComparability Zhong Chu, Zhu Yong, Li Meng (YunnanClimateCenter, Kunming 650034) Abstract:For studying the problem that forecasting flue-cured tobacco quality with meteorological factors, the chemical quality of flue-cured tobacco in 83 tobacco-planting counties of Yunnan Province in 2004 were divided into 10 types, which was based on total sugar, reducing sugar, nicotine, total nitrogen and protein, according to the principle of minimum square Euclidean distance by using systemic cluster analysis. According to the theory that similar chemical compositions of flue-cured tobacco in similar climatic conditions, the Euclidean distance of meteorological conditions between the 83 tobacco-planting counties in 2005 and the corresponding 10 types of chemical quality in flue-cured tobacco were calculated. To the principle that the smaller distance, the higher similarity, the main chemical compositions and