中低速电动汽车盈亏敏感性分析及简介.pdfVIP

学兔兔 汽 车 工 程 2012年(第34卷)第9期 Automotive Engineering 2012(Vo1．34)No．9 2012168 中低速电动汽车盈亏敏感性分析 朱 妮 ，-，欧阳明高 ，卢兰光 ，江发潮 (1．中国农业大学5-．学院，北京 100083；2．清华大学，汽车安全与节能国家重点实验室，北京 100084) [摘要] 从消费者的角度出发，详细分析和对比了中低速电动汽车和燃油汽车的生命周期成本，并引入盈亏 敏感性这一参数来比较两者的优势；且重点分析了未来油价、电池价格和电池寿命对生命周期成本的影响；最后讨 论了铅酸电池和锂离子电池的应用可行性，得出在现有的市场和技术水平条件下，装用铅酸电池的中低速电动汽车 相对于同级燃油汽车已具有生命周期成本优势；而在油价和电池单价保持现有水平的条件下，锂离子电池只有当寿 命延长至l5万km时，其生命周期成本才能与燃油汽车达到平衡。 关键词：中低速电动汽车；动力电池；生命周期成本；盈亏敏感性 A Benefit Sensitivity Analysis of Medium／Low Speed Electric Vehicle Zhu Ni ，Ouyang Minggao ，Lu Languang ＆Jiang Fachao 1．The College ofEngineering，ChinaAgriculture University，Beijing 100083； 2．Tsinghua University，StateKeyLaboratory ofAutomotive Safety andEnergy，Beijing 100084 [Abstract] Viewing from the angle of consumers，the life cycle costs(LCCs)of medium／low speed electric vehicles(MLSEV)and conventional fuel vehicles (CFV)are analyzed and compared，and a parameter of benefit sensitivity is introduced to compare their superiorities，with the focus put on the analysis on the effects of future fuel price，battery price and battery life on LCC．Finally the application feasibilities of lead-acid battery and Li-ion bat— tery are discussed，and it is found that under the current conditions of market and technical level，the MLSEV with lead—acid battery already has superiority over the conventional fuel vehicle of same grade in LCC．As for Li．ion bat． tery，with current prices of fuel and batteries unchanged，only when its service life reach 150，000 km can it match CFV in LCC． ． Keyw