城市极端洪灾应急群决策模型探究.docVIP

城市极端洪灾应急群决策模型探究摘 要：全球气候变暖的因素导致近年来极端洪灾频频发生，已成为影响我国社会经济发展的重要问题。传统的洪灾应急决策只是由政府主导的行政命令式决策，无形当中剥夺了灾害当中其他利益相关主体的决策权。异质性利益相关主体参与决策是实现极端洪灾应急决策科学化与民主化的重要途径，该类群决策具有与一般意义上的群决策不同的特征。结合某些利益主体决策时存在一定程度犹豫性的特点和可能存在的绝对自私策略选择，本文有针对性地提出基于评价意见相似度的调整策略，建立了基于相似度调整的直觉模糊群决策模型和算法步骤。 关键词：极端洪灾；异质性利益主体；直觉模糊；群决策 中图分类号：C934 文献标识码：A 文章编号：10035192(2012)03007105 Study on Group Decision Model of Extreme Flood Disaster Emergency in City TANG Run1,2, WANG Haiyan1,2, MA Shujian3 (1.School of Management Science Industrial Engineering, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210046, China; 2.Jiangsu Province Institute of Quality and Safety Engineering, Nanjing 210046, China; 3.College of Sciences, Nanjing University of Technology, Nanjing 210009, China) Abstract:Extreme flood disaster happens frequently because of the influence of global warmer weather. It affects the development of society and economics. The decision of traditional flood disaster emergency is made by local government. And the decision right of other relative interest agent is deprived. Group decision which heterogeneous interest agents take part in will promote the democratization and scientific process in flood disaster emergency. The decision is different from the general group decision. Some agents may be hesitant and absolutely selfish in decision. This paper proposed control measure base on similitude degree. An intuitionistic fuzzy group decision model and arithmetic step are established, which based on similitude degree control. Key words:extreme flood disaster; heterogeneous interest agents; intuitionistic fuzzy; group decision 1 引言 20世纪以来，自然现象变异表现突出，以全球变暖为主的气候变化日益明显，对自然灾害尤其是洪水灾害产生了巨大的影响：改变了洪涝灾害发生的频次和加剧了洪涝灾害的损失强度，使得极端洪水或特大洪水频繁发生，但目前我国城市的防洪规划标准仍然偏低，大多只是针对抵御中小洪水设计的，而对于极端洪水事件的超标洪水，城市防洪规划适应性在减弱，加之我国城市化进程速度的不断加快，目前很多已经失去指导城市建设和发展的作用。另外，由于现代城市空间的立体化开发、城市对水电气和交通等生命线工程依赖程度的加大、城市资产结构的复杂化，城市遭受暴雨袭击下其孕灾模式、成灾机理与以往农业社会的水灾风险特性已经有了明显的不同，损失也越来越大，如2007年7月济南遭遇特大暴雨，银座地下购物广场被淹造成多人死亡，2010年5月广州突降暴雨近两万辆汽车因浸