解读Logisitic人口模型在民族地区适用性.doc

解读Logisitic人口模型在民族地区的适用性 Interpret Logisitic population model applicability in minority areas 我国是人口最多的开展中国度，经济的开展离不开人口开展，人口开展又会反作用于经济开展，所以，在我国，要想搞好经济开展，首先就要处理人口问题。 Is in our country with the largest population in China, economic development cannot be separated from population, population development will react on the economy develops, so, in our country, if you want to do a good job in the economic developed, and the first to deal with the population problem. 由于我国的天文缘由和历史缘由，少数民族地域的经济和人口开展属于滞后状态，但是国民经济的开展势必会带动少数民族地域的经济开展，民族地域的滞后势必也会成为总是经济开展的弊端，所以少数民族地域的开展成为了大家关注的焦点，希望能经过少数民族地域的开展来进步总体开展的平衡性。 Due to astronomical reason and historical reason, in our country minority regional economy and population belongs to the lagging condition, but the development of national economy is bound to drive the minority regional economy is developed, and the national geographic lag will inevitably will also be a always carried out economic disadvantages, so the development of ethnic minority region became the focus of attention, hope we can through the development of ethnic minority region to advances the overall balance. 1789年，马尔萨斯就在《人口理论》一书中提出了人口指数增长模型，在当时遭到了很大的关注，但同时人们也提出了很多争议，由于指数增长型明显地存在了一些弊端，在当时间趋向无量的时分，人口总数也会趋向无量，这与理想状况是不相契合的，但由于当时人口基数小，所以马尔萨斯模型还是活泼了很长一段时间，直至西方经济的疾速开展，人口数量也得到了疾速的开展，此时，马尔萨斯模型已与当时的人口开展产生了很大的误差，人们便愈加注重马尔萨斯人口模型的缺陷，于是Logistic人口模型即阻滞增长模型便应运而生了。 In 1789, Thomas malthus in the book population theory, puts forward the index of population growth model, at the time was a lot of attention, but at the same time it also puts forward a lot of controversy, because of exponential growth obviously, there are some disadvantages when time tends to infinite time, will also tend to limit the population, and this is not corresponds to the ideal condition, but due to the small population base, so the malthusian model still active for a long time, until the western economy rapidly developed, and the population also got rapid development, at this point, the malthusian model has had a gre