国际经济学II2-04分析.ppt

2. International Investment without Cover --Uncovered Interest Parity Uncovered Interest Parity links together four rates: -- the current spot exchange rate (e) -- the spot exchange rate that is currently expected to exist (on average) in the future (eex) -- the current interest rates in the two countries (iuk, ius) If one of these rates changes, then at least one of the other rates also must change to maintain (re-establish) uncovered interest parity. Chapter Outline I. Background: Exchange Rate Risk II. Exploration: The market Basics of Forward Foreign Exchange III. Application: International Financial Investment IV. Examination: Empirical Evidence on Interest Parity IV. Examination:  Empirical evidence on interest parity Evidence on Covered Interest Parity Evidence on Uncovered Interest Parity Evidence on Forward Exchange Rates and Expected Future Spot Exchange Rates This is the end of Lecture Any questions? Feel free to discuss with me Or No questions…Great! Remember to prepare Lecture 4 I will be glad to see you next week Thank you! International Economics II Lecture 04 Forward Exchange International Financial Investment (远期外汇与国际金融投资） Objective Eternal Puzzle: Exchange Rate Uncertainty This chapter examines future exchanges of moneys and the exposure to the risks of uncertain future exchange rates. It discusses how forward foreign exchange contracts can be used to reduce the risk exposure or to speculate on future exchange rates. Chapter Outline I. Background: Exchange Rate Risk II. Exploration: The market Basics of Forward Foreign Exchange III. Application: International Financial Investment IV. Examination: Empirical Evidence on Interest Parity I. Background: --Exchange Rate Risks You are exposed to exchange rate risk if the value of your income or wealth or net worth will change if exchange rates in the future change in ways that are not expected. ? Then, you have two choices: Hedging and