财政支出政策就业效应探究.doc

财政支出政策就业效应探究摘 要：针对中国面临严重的就业问题，在市场无法充分解决的情况下，本文研究财政支出的就业效应。通过计算财政支出各项明细与就业的相关系数，确定了各项财政支出的就业影响时滞期。对现行财政政策的就业效应进行了实证分析，有针对性地对非财政教育投入、非预算内固定资产投资进行格兰杰因果性分析，利用F统计量、卡方统计量、赤池信息准则、贝叶斯信息准则等检验方法对财政支出变量进行逐步回归，剔除不显著变量后，构建了财政支出政策的就业回归模型，并提出了调整财政支出结构的实践路径选择。 关键词：财政支出；就业；时滞性；格兰杰因果检验；多元回归 中图分类号：F810.45 文献标识码：A 文章编号：10035192(2012)03001905 Research of Fiscal Expenditure Policy s Employment Effect WANG Zhiyu1, TIAN Jinxin1, WANG Wenjing2 (1.Harbin Institute of Technology, School of Management and Economy, Harbin 150001, China; 2.Nankai University,School of Economics, Tianjin 300071, China) Abstract:When China is confronting increasingly severe employment problem and the market could not fully solve this problem, the employment effect of fiscal expenditure policy is studied in this paper. The coefficients of fiscal expenditure items and employment are calculated, and fiscal expenditure items ? lag phases are determined. Empirical analysis is done of the current fiscal expenditure policy ?s employment effect, and Granger causality analysis is done of nonfiscal educational investment and nonbudgeted fixed asset investment. Stepwise regression of fiscal expenditure variables is carried out using the F statistic, Chisquare statistic, Akaike information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion. Excluding not significant variables, the regression model of fiscal expenditure policy and employment is built. Besides, practical pathway is brought forward for adjusting fiscal expenditure structure. Key words:fiscal expenditure; employment; hysteresis; Granger causality test; multivariable regression 1 引言 就业问题涉及群众的切身利益，具有十分重要的政治、经济和社会意义。中国自从加入WTO以后把就业问题推向市场，财政政策就必须要对经济波动造成的就业波动进行宏观调控。国内外文献中对财政教育支出对就业的影响研究较多，D ’Orlando提出教育支出不足，造成国民学历低引起失业［1］。丁颖研究了国外经合组织国家的公立学校和私立学校情况，发现对私立学校给予拨款的形式吸引了大量民间资本对教育的投入，对民众就业起到了间接促进作用［2］。国内外学者对社会保障支出的就业影响持不同态度。孙永勇认为扩大社会保障支出，会减少人们对未来生活的担忧，削弱预防性储蓄，对人均消费支出的影响产生正效应，拉动生产促进就业［3］。方红生研究了中国财政政策非线性稳定效应并对形成的可能机制进行检验，得出经济衰退期增加政府社会保障等福利支出不利于短期的