文章编号0258-8013200907-00006中图-中国电机工程学报.pdfVIP

第 30 卷 第 35 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.30 No.35 Dec.15, 2010 2010 年 12 月 15 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2010 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 107 文章编号：0258-8013 (2010) 35-0107-05 中图分类号：TM 614 文献标志码：A 学科分类号：480·60 基于幂律过程和改进参数估计方法的 风电场风能评估 靳全，苏春 ( 东南大学机械工程学院，江苏省 南京市 211189) Wind Energy Assessment of Wind Farms Based on Power-law Process and Modified Parameter Estimation Method JIN Quan, SU Chun (School of Mechanical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, Jiangsu Province, China) ABSTRACT: The probability distribution of wind speed and 析及主要风能指标的对比，验证所提出方法的合理性和有效 availability assessment for wind farms were investigated 性。结果表明：极大似然估计法及改进方法优于最小二乘法； considering the vertical wind shear，which was clarified by the 风切变导致不同高度风速分布变化，Weibull 分布的柔性特 power-law process precisely. Wind speed at extended height 点使其在模拟高层风速时更为准确。 (60 m) was generated from that of reference height (10 m), so 关键词：风能评估；垂直风切变；幂律过程；改进极大似然 as to interpret the discipline of wind shear. Assumed the wind 估计 speed submitted to the two-parameter Weibull distribution, the least square (LS) method and maximum likelihood estimation 0 引言 (MLE) method were used to estimate the parameters, to which 风能具有可再生、无污染和储量丰富等优点。 a modified MLE method was proposed and applied. The 风能的开发利用对解决能源短缺、减轻环境压力和 distribution of wind speed at extended height and main wind 实现低碳经济等具有重要意义，近年来风力发电在 ener