决策树方法（Decision tree method）.docVIP

决策树方法（Decision tree method） Refers to a series of factors of a decision alternative, possible state, probability and consequences, according to the relationship between them with a tree diagram, and then according to the principles and procedures of the network selection and decision making. Step in the decision tree analysis method is: A. graphics rendering decision tree; B. calculation of expected value; Optimal scheme of c.. The decision tree analysis method is simple and clear, is a commonly used method of modern management decision makers. Many simple management decisions are made in the results of all possible actions of the implementation of the program know very true condition. A business with excess cash of $100000, to invest in 30 days to maturity bonds, interest rate of 7 - 2/1% (30 days of interest of $625), can also advance the repayment of bank loans, the interest expense savings of $675; it can actually work out: early repayment of loans can get $50. In another example, a manufacturer needs an industrial fastener 100000, he can from the wholesale A between where to buy, every price 0. 74 dollars, to buy wholesale B was 0. The price of $745, he knew exactly what to buy this batch of fastener wholesale A decision problems can save $2500 even for those events and the consequences can not predict, enterprise management authorities to all possible decisions as full information to deal with the issue, also contribute to further understanding of the decision-making process. Understand the basic principle in determining the conditions of decision-making, to lay a solid foundation for uncertainty when making decision analysis more complex. Therefore, this involved in management economics analysis of many jobs and many of the best decisions in all events and results have full information assumption. The However, in fact, all the major management decisions are made under uncertainty. The manager must be in do not fully understand how it happened and the impact o