does simplicity compromise accuracy in acs risk prediction a retrospective analysis of the timi and grace risk scores并简单妥协acs风险预测的准确性timi和优雅的回顾性分析风险得分.pdfVIP

Does Simplicity Compromise Accuracy in ACS Risk Prediction? A Retrospective Analysis of the TIMI and GRACE Risk Scores 1. 1. 1 1 2 Krishna G. Aragam , Umesh U. Tamhane , Eva Kline-Rogers , Jin Li , Keith A. A. Fox , Shaun G. 3 1 1 Goodman , Kim A. Eagle , Hitinder S. Gurm * 1 Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America, 2 Cardiovascular Research, Division of Medical and Radiological Sciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, 3 Canadian Heart Research Centre and Terrence Donnelly Heart Centre, Division of Cardiology, St Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Abstract Background: The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for Unstable Angina/Non-ST–elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI) and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality are established tools for assessing risk in Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) patients. The objective of our study was to compare the discriminative abilities of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores in a broad-spectrum, unselected ACS population and to assess the relative contributions of model simplicity and model composition to any observed differences between the two scoring systems. Methodology/Principal Findings: ACS patients admitted to the University of Michigan between 1999 and 2005 were divided into UA/NSTEMI (n = 2753) and STEMI (n = 698) subpopulations. The predictive abilities of the TIMI and GRACE scores for in-hospital and 6-mo