基于层次-主成分分析法的BRT系统建设决策综合评价.doc

基于层次-主成分分析法的BRT系统建设决策综合评价 张萌1 毛保华2 陈团生3 （北方交通大学交通运输学院，北京 100044） 摘要优先发展公交的本文BRT系统建设方案综合评价指标体系，将层次主成分BRT、说明BRT系统在四种交通方式中具有优越性，该计算结果为BRT的建设决策提供了科学、准确的依据。 关键词BRT，主成分分析法层次分析法指标体系Evaluation of Construction Program of BRT System In Application of Combined Model on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Primary Component Analysis Zhang Meng1 Mao Baohua2 Chen Tuansheng3 (School of Traffic And Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University ,China,100044 ) Abstract Public transport preference is a very important traffic policy for urban passenger transport performance,setting up a model of evaluation for normal public transit makes great senses to improving the sructure of a city．The paper combines the primary component analysis and analytic hierarchy process from the four aspects on society,ecnomy,technology and environment, and it also sets up a model of synthetic evaluation on basis of primary component analysis and analytic hierarchy process.The conclusion appears that the new model in the paper overcomes the shortcomings between traditional analytic hierarchy process which identifys weight in according to subjection and the primary component analysis which completely depends on the real data on the index ,and we can scientifically evaluate the normal public trasit.The comparision result on the four transit ways shows that BRT system is superior to the other three ways,the result also provides scientific and exact basis for the construction decision of BRT system. Key words BRT, primary component analysis, analytic hierarchy process, index system rail transit CLC number U 491.1+7 Document code A 0 引言 当前，我国大城市的交通问题日益严重，一方面，交通管理上的不足使拥堵日益频繁，提高了人们的出行成本；另一方面，小汽车的数量大幅增长，使能源的需求和尾气的排放大幅提高。对此，我国提出了在大城市中“公交优先”的发展战略。大城市居民出行主要有两大类公共交通工具可以选择：轨道交通和常规公交。轨道交通，尤其是地铁，因其载客量大，速度快而广受青睐，但其造价昂贵。而普通巴士虽然造价较低，但是载客量小，速度较慢，所以发展也非常受到限制[3]。由此，新型的公交体系，巴士快速交通（Bus Rapid Transit，简称BRT目前世界上许多城市，特别是美国、加拿大、澳大利亚与欧洲一些城市的决策者和规划人员已将快速公交系统作为一种新的公共交通方式，与轨道交通相提并论。库里提巴市的骨干网络完全建立在快速公交系统之上，这一具有战略眼光的举