“一带一路”沿线资源国国家风险与出口潜力区位选择.pdfVIP

Research and Approach 研究与探讨 “一带一路”沿线资源国国家 风险与出口潜力区位选择 1，2 2 1，2 刘  畅 ，陈建明 ，孙晓蕾 （1. 中国科学院大学，北京 100049 ；2. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所，北京 100190 ） 摘要：“一带一路 ”战略的提出，对于增加我国能源进口渠道、减弱对马六甲海峡的依赖 具有重大战略意义。本文针对石油进口安全，总结分析了我国石油进口组合中来自“一带一 路 ”沿线资源国和非沿线国家的进口概况，在对资源国的石油出口潜力分析的基础上，进一步 解析其相关国家的综合风险。研究从风险收益二维视角，构建了“出口潜力—风险暴露 ”区位 选择矩阵，对 29 个样本国进行区位判断。研究发现，中国目前的石油进口组合中处于高风险 低潜力区位的资源国较为集中，并且该区位内非沿线国家居多，而沿线国家多处于高潜力区 位，出于维护能源安全稳定的战略需要，有必要加强与“一带一路 ”沿线国家的油气合作，实 现石油运输通道多元化，增强与高出口潜力国家的合作力度。 关键词：“一带一路 ”；石油进口；国家风险；出口潜力；区位选择 中图分类号：F416 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1003-2355-(2016)03-0019-06 Doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2355.2016.03.004 Abstract: Under the background of China impelling the Belt and Road Initiative, it becomes an important issue ’ to study the country risk exposure in the portfolio of China s oil import, in order to participate in the international petroleum cooperation and exploit the foreign oil resources to obtain enough supply of oil resources and guarantee energy safety supply. Taken country risk and export potential of 29 oil resource-rich countries, including 11 countries along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, 5 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the other 13 countries, ’ as two dimensions, the strategic matrix of location selection of China s oil import is constructed. The results show that ’ China s oil import portfolio is concentrated on the region of high risk and low potential, and most of them are not the countries along the Belt and Road. As a consequence, it is necessary to promote the diversification of energy import channel, and strengthen the cooperation with the h