引言-交通安全研究与应用.pdfVIP

基于分层负二项模型的城郊公路安全影响因素研究 1* 1 2 1 王雪松 ，宋洋 ，黄合来 ，张丹云 （1 同济大学 交通运输工程学院, 上海 201804 2 中南大学 交通运输工程学院, 长沙 410075 ） 摘要：基于上海市8 条城郊公路的 161 个路段，利用统计模型分析公路宏观特征、路段几何设计、接入口 特征、交通特征、区位特点和安全的关系，以加深对城郊公路事故发生与相关因素之间关系的认识。选自 同一公路的不同路段由于遵循相同的设计标准、相似交通特点而存在空间相关现象，违背了传统模型样本 相互独立的假设，建立分层负二项模型进行分析可以获得准确结果。结果表明：位于近郊的路段相对于远 郊更易发生交通事故；信控交叉口密度对简易事故、一般事故和事故总数均有显著正相关影响，间距大且 均衡对安全最有利的；接入口密度对三类事故有显著正相关影响；曲线路段容易导致一般事故的发生。 关键字：交通工程；安全分析；分层负二项模型；城郊公路；安全影响因素 中图分类号：文献标识码： Safety Analysis for Suburban Highways Using Hierarchical Negative Binomial Models 1* 1 2 1 WANG Xuesong ，SONG Yang , HUANG Helai , ZHANG Danyun （1Tongji University, School of Transportation Engineering, Shanghai 201804 2 Central South University, School of Transportation Engineering 410075 ） Abstract: Based on 161 segments of 8 suburban highways of one city, a model was established to analyze the relationship between safety and macro highway characteristic, geometry design, access features, traffic characteristics, environmental setting to deepen the understanding of crash occurrence on suburban highways. The road segments from the same highway are correlated because of the same design criterion and similar traffic characteristics, which violates the traditional models’ assumption that all samples should be independent with each other. Therefore, hierarchical Negative Binomial model was developed to analyze risk factors. The result showed that more slight accidents occurred in inner suburb than those in outer suburb; the number of signalized intersections per kilometer has a significant influence on slight, severe accidents and total accidents; the probability o