Analysis- The risk of failure of credit control and their impact（信贷控制的分析-失败的风险及其影响）.docVIP

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Analysis- The risk of failure of credit control and their impact（信贷控制的分析-失败的风险及其影响）.doc

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Analysis- The risk of failure of credit control and their impact（信贷控制的分析-失败的风险及其影响）

Analysis: The risk of failure of credit control and their impact Official recently released statistics show that this year, a quarter of all social financing scale was 6.16 trillion yuan, surged 2.27 trillion yuan over the same period last year, which in March China’s new social financing scale reached 2.54 trillion yuan, a record high, compared with the same period by more than 700 billion yuan last year, although over the years of credit expansion has obvious seasonal rhythm, but rebounded strongly in March degree of credit seems to have exceeded the scope of seasonal factors, this phenomenon can not but arouse our attention, the central bank credit control is facing the risk of runaway? If credit continues to accelerate, will be on the real economy as well as the steel market produce what kind of impact it? below, we interpret the associated. Figure 1 2007-2013 accounted for a quarter of the domestic situation of new credit Source: Information First, the social trends in the financing structure 1 RMB loans accounted for a substantial decline in 2012, China’s new RMB loans 8.2 trillion yuan, accounting for the proportion of social financing scale was 52.1%, compared with 92% in 2002 the proportion of the scale of social financing has declined by about 40%, compared with 58.2% of the proportion of 11 years there have been noticeable decline, although RMB loans of domestic enterprises is still an important means of financing, but its well-established trend continues to decline, falling from 9:1 to now is still not the end of the half, the United States and other developed countries, 30% -40% of the loan financing proportion perhaps the next 10 years a comprehensive reform of the financial system as a reference target. (2) corporate bonds and stocks the rapid development of direct financing Direct financing grew from about 7% in 2002 steadily rose to around 18% in 2012. Central bank released data show that in 2012 net financing corporate bonds