1954-2007年云南农业气候变化研究.pdfVIP

/product/780.html 1954 ) 2007 黄中艳 朱 勇 ( 云南省气候中心, 昆明650034) : 为弄清主要农业气候要素和农业气候年型变化规律和特征基于多站点气 候资料, 表征云南农业气候特点的17 个初选气候因子, 进行经验正交( EOF) 分解 提取主成分因子, 再应用系统聚类法划分农业气候年型结果得到7 个相互独立的 主成分因子和6 种农业气候年型, 可客观表述云南主要农业气候变化特征1954 年 以来云南农业主要生长季气候变暖趋势明显; 降水量和日照时数比气温年际波动大, 日照变化又比降水量明显; 春旱强度有减弱的趋势, 阴雨寡照逐渐加重; 1990 年代中 期以来气候变暖明显加剧, 同时日照时数波动振幅大夏季雨量有递减趋势; 1995 年 以来云南主要受两种农业气候年型影响, 1999 ) 2007 年的主要气候年型在 1950 年 代1960 年代和1970 年代均未曾出现气候变化 农业的利弊影响都十分显著 : 农业气候变化 EOF 分析 系统聚类 Research on Staple A ro-climate Chan es for Recent 54 Years in Yunnan Huan Zhon yan Zhu Yon ( Yunnan Clim ate Center, Kunmin 650034) Abstract: The features of chan es for a ro-climatic elements and a ro-climatic matchin types in Yunnan were investi ated. On the basis of historical climatic data from observed stations, ortho - onal expansion method w as used to extract staple components from 17 climatic factors for three periods amid anniversary denotin local a ro-climatic features. And hierarchical cluster method w as employed to divide a ro-climatic matchin classes of Yunnan. As the results of this research, the principal chan es of a ro-climatic elements and annual a ro-climatic types w ere summarized by 7 principal components independent of each other and 6 annual a ro-climatic types. T he research show s that there w as a trend of climate w armin durin the principal season of Yunnan a riculture amon the recent 54 years and it has been reinforced since 1990s. On the oth- er hand, the annual chan es of precipitation and sunshine duration w ere more conspicuous than air 35 112 /product/855.html temperature; the amplit