forecasts on international economic and financial situation and impact of（国际经济和金融形势预测和影响）.docVIP

Forecasts on international economic and financial situation and impact of U.S. economic recovery, the euro area and Japan is out of the mire of recession, that the world economy is entering a post-crisis era of slow growth in China’s latest trade deficit may become the norm there, difficult to export into the future engine of growth, strength recovered foreign banks to speed up expansion in China, Chinese banks will face in the middle of the field more intense business competition. U.S. economic recovery will remain slow U.S. economic leading indicators of PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) 59.60 reached in March this year, has more than 50 for 8 consecutive months of economic contraction and expansion of the index of the watershed, suggesting that the U.S. economy will continue to recover In addition, the United States in March Nonfarm employment is 180,000, indicating that the U.S. unemployment rate began to decline, which also provided the impetus for economic recovery, but since the financial crisis, the U.S. non-farm unemployment total up to 800 million The unemployment rate hit a nearly 30-year high (up to 9.7% in March, still), even if the U.S. non-farm employment to maintain the current momentum of growth, the unemployment rate to recover to pre-crisis level of 4.6 percent natural rate of unemployment, probably take two years, Therefore, short-term U.S. economic growth will not happen. In addition, the U.S. housing market remains depressed, mortgage rates hit record highs for the break, bad bank rate is still rising, the number of bank failures this year has reached 50, the credit market liquidity not sufficient, although fourth-quarter GDP growth rate of 5.6%, due to the gradual withdrawal of economic stimulus in the first quarter U.S. GDP growth will drop to about 3%. The euro zone economy out of recession will slow growth to achieve the Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has more than 50 for 6 months, and to maintain upward trend, indica