found in agricultural futures prices on the establishment of early warning mechanism cpi（在农业期货价格发现cpi建立预警机制）.docVIP

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found in agricultural futures prices on the establishment of early warning mechanism cpi（在农业期货价格发现cpi建立预警机制）.doc

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found in agricultural futures prices on the establishment of early warning mechanism cpi（在农业期货价格发现cpi建立预警机制）

Found in agricultural futures prices on the establishment of early warning mechanism CPI [Abstract] The author believes that the spot price of agricultural products not only affect the CPI, and the futures prices also affect the CPI. This paper, empirical models examined agricultural relationship between futures prices and CPI results show that agricultural futures prices can be expected CPI five months ahead of the basic trend, while that of agricultural products as the first index futures market is not out on the spot market, a simple financial market, but the spot market for agricultural products have an important impact on the financial derivatives market and finally raised the price of agricultural products should be used to find the early warning mechanism, by stabilizing the price of agricultural products in order to reduce the CPI spot market volatility. [Keywords] agricultural futures price discovery mechanism for early warning The consumer price index (CPI mainly reflects consumers pay for goods and services price changes, is an important indicator of the level of inflation observed. CPI trend analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic policy-making are important, but the CPI data released with a lag, Therefore, how to effectively enhance the CPI is expected to function much domestic scholars are concerned, of which Wang Jinsong (2008 that stock prices, although not included in the monetary policy objectives, but with the market economy continues to improve, the stock price into the monetary policy will objectives. Ishimori Chang (2010 changes by stock price factors into the analysis that affect the CPI, the CPI changes in stock prices a positive correlation. Huchun Tian (2010 study come to our stock price on the CPI is not expected, the central bank attitude can only be concerned about the stock market rather than pegged to stock price movements should be excluded from the central bank reaction function. Liude Wei (2011 pointed out that the fu