于TransCAD的路段交通预测(呼市新城区).doc

摘 要 随着呼和浩特市GDP的逐年快速增长，作为呼和浩特市人口最多的行政区——新城区的现状路网已经不能够满足人们日益增长的出行需求，而这种不满足的现状体现在什么地方，以及未来年人们的出行情况又会怎样，那时候的现状路网还能不能满足出行要求，这就需要运用专业的交通规划软件进行分析和预测，由美国Caliper公司开发的TransCAD软件给本次研究提供了一个很好的操作平台。 本次论文是以呼和浩特市新城区现状的路网及小区资料运用TransCAD软件进行新城区现状的交通模拟，其中现状数据的采集过程，除了实地的探访调查外，还利用网络，图书馆等途径进行获取，以期能够得到最佳的现状数据，并能够准确事实的再现新城区目前的交通状况，这样，在后期的时候利用这些前期得到的相关数据运用回归分析法进行未来年（10年后）的交通出行与发生的预测，并对得到的这些数据进行再分配得到未来年的新城区交通状况图，依照未来年的效果图提出自己的改造方案，最后将这些改造方案实际运用在TransCAD软件中进行模拟，得出效果图。 关键词：呼和浩特市新城区；TransCAD；交通分配；交通预测；路网改造 Abstract With the rapid development of the GDP in Hohhot years after years. Hohhot as the most populous borough - the status of the Xincheng District road network is no longer able to meet the growing travel demand, and this is reflected in the status quo does not meet any place, and the future In the case how will people travel, when the status of road network can not meet travel requirements, which requires the use of professional transportation planning software for analysis and prediction, developed by the U.S. Caliper TransCAD software to provide this study a good platform. This thesis research is based on the status of Hohhot city and district road network data using TransCAD software for new urban traffic conditions to reproduce the status quo, status of data collection and acquisition process, in addition to field visits survey, also using the Internet, libraries and other channels to obtain in order to be able to get the best status data, and can accurately reproduce the fact that the new city the current traffic conditions, so that in the latter part of the time use data obtained using pre-regression analysis for future years ( 10 years later) and the occurrence of traffic travel prediction, and the resulting redistribution of these data to be years ahead of the new city traffic maps, map in accordance with the effect in future years to make their own rehabilitation programs, and finally the actual use of these rehabilitation programs In TransCAD software to simulate the draw r