on the chinese real estate price fluctuations on the trade balance empirical（中国房地产价格波动对贸易收支的实证）.docVIP

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on the chinese real estate price fluctuations on the trade balance empirical（中国房地产价格波动对贸易收支的实证）.doc

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on the chinese real estate price fluctuations on the trade balance empirical（中国房地产价格波动对贸易收支的实证）

On the Chinese real estate price fluctuations on the trade balance Empirical Abstract: This article is based on EG cointegration and Granger causality test to study the Chinese real estate price fluctuations on the trade balance, draw relevant conclusions: As China’s real estate market instability, underdeveloped financial markets, making China’s real estate price volatility is not through the wealth effect impact on the trade balance, and this status quo of the relevant policy recommendations. Keywords: real estate prices; wealth effect, Granger causality test Data show that China’s foreign trade since 1994 has maintained an annual surplus in 2010 reached $ 183.1 billion. This makes China’s foreign trade activities by the US-led Western countries, multiple obstacles, escalating trade friction abroad . Therefore, the solution to the current trade imbalance is a key work of China’s macro economy. Many factors affect the trade imbalances, asset price fluctuations have begun to concern for people, the development of Chinese real estate industry is thriving all these years, the real estate market development of China’s overall economy is growing. In order to ease the trade surplus situation, the need to focus on economic development for the transition from export-driven domestic demand, in the process, the real estate market wealth effect can occur, or wealth effects through the consumption can have an impact on the trade balance is very important. A theoretical analysis and method selection House prices through the wealth effect on consumption mainly in the following ways: First, to honor the wealth effect. Real estate prices after homeowners receive the net asset wealth growth, then through the sale of real estate or mortgage loans with access to income, income will stimulate consumption. Second, the wealth effect is not fulfilled. House prices have increased even without the homeowners after selling his property, but they consider thems