sensitivity analysis of an individual-based model for simulation of influenza epidemics灵敏度分析的流感流行的基于单独的仿真模型.pdfVIP

Sensitivity Analysis of an Individual-Based Model for Simulation of Influenza Epidemics 1 1 1,2 Elaine O. Nsoesie *, Richard J. Beckman , Madhav V. Marathe 1 Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America, 2 Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America Abstract Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes to these parameters (in addition to the transmissibility) would be useful for future studies and real-time modeling during an influenza pandemic. In this study, we examined individual and joint effects of parameters and ranked parameters based on their influence on the dynamics of simulated epidemics. We also compared the sensitivity of the model across synthetic social networks for Montgomery County in Virginia and New York City (and surrounding metropolitan regions) with demographic and rural-urban differences. In addition, we studied the effects of changing the mean infectious period on age-specific epidemics. The research was performed from a public health standpoint using three relevant measures: time to peak, peak infected proportion and total attack rate. We also used statistical methods in the design and analysis of the experiments. The results showed that: (i) minute changes in the transmissibility and mean infectious period significantly i