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short term effects of weather on hand, foot and mouth disease短期的影响天气,手足口病
Short Term Effects of Weather on Hand, Foot and Mouth
Disease
1 ¨ 1,2 1
Yien Ling Hii *, Joacim Rocklov , Nawi Ng
˚ ˚ ˚
1 Umea Centre for Global Health Research, Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umea University, Umea, Sweden,
˚ ˚
2 Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
Abstract
Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks leading to clinical and fatal complications have increased
since late 1990s; especially in the Asia Pacific Region. Outbreaks of HFMD peaks in the warmer season of the year, but the
underlying factors for this annual pattern and the reasons to the recent upsurge trend have not yet been established. This
study analyzed the effect of short-term changes in weather on the incidence of HFMD in Singapore.
Methods: The relative risks between weekly HFMD cases and temperature and rainfall were estimated for the period 2001–
2008 using time series Poisson regression models allowing for over-dispersion. Smoothing was used to allow non-linear
relationship between weather and weekly HFMD cases, and to adjust for seasonality and long-term time trend. Additionally,
autocorrelation was controlled and weather was allowed to have a lagged effect on HFMD incidence up to 2 weeks.
Results: Weekly temperature and rainfall showed statistically significant association with HFMD incidence at time lag of 1–2
weeks. Every 1uC increases in maximum temperature above 32uC elevated
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