spatio-temporal patterns of barmah forest virus disease in queensland, australia时空模式的巴尔马森林病毒病在昆士兰,澳大利亚.pdfVIP

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Barmah Forest Virus Disease in Queensland, Australia 1 2 3 1 Suchithra Naish *, Wenbiao Hu , Kerrie Mengersen , Shilu Tong 1 School of Public Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, 2 School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, 3 Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia Abstract Background: Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings: We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran’s I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (x2 = 7587, df = 7327,p,0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran’s I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p,0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state.