地理类理解正在变化的星球 第四章.pptVIP

第四章 100亿人在地球上如何生存和分布 How and Where Will 10 Billion People Live on Earth? We live in the century of the city. In 2008, humanity crossed a milestone as it marked the first time that more people lived in urban areas than any other type of settlement. The United Nations forecasts that most of the global population growth in the coming decades will occur in urban areas. 我们生活在城市的时代。2008年，人类跨越了一个里程碑，它标志着居住在城市范围的人数第一次超过了其他地区。美国预测未来10年全球大部分人口增长将会发生在城市地区 。 World population is expected to increase by 1 billion to 5 billion between 2007 and 2050 (UN, 2009), yielding a global total of between 7.9 and 12 billion people by 2050 depending on fertility and mortality trends (Figure 4.1). 根据人口出生率和死亡率趋势预测，在2005年到2050年间世界人口将增长10亿~50亿人（UN,2009）,因此2050年世界总人口将达到79亿~120亿人。（图4.1） Under the medium-growth scenario, world population will be almost 10 billion by 2050, with an estimated 3.1 billion new urban dwellers. Notwithstanding uncertainties around the effect of HIV/AIDS and economic downturns on mortality and urban migration, the current scale of urbanization is unparalleled in history (Cohen, 2004). 在中速增长模拟情景中，2050年世界总人口数将接近100亿，其中估计有31亿新城市居民。尽管HIV/AIDS和经济衰退对死亡率和城市迁移的影响具有不确定性，但是目前的城市化规模仍是史无前例的（Cohen,2004） An urbanizing global population has significant consequences—potentially positive as well as negative—for resource use, environmental sustainability, and ultimately, the well-being of humanity. The concentration of people and resources in dense urban settlements can reduce the energy consumed for buildings and transportation and can lower carbon dioxide emissions (NRC, 2009). Urban areas also provide economic opportunities and, in many places, are the engines of economic growth. 世界人口城市化将对资源利用、环境可持续和人类福祉产生显著的影响，可能是积极的，也可能是消极的。人口和资源在密集城市区域的集中能够减少建筑和交通的能源消耗、降低二氧化碳的排放。城市区域也能提供经济发展机会，在许多地方，城市是经济增长的引擎。 Most urban population growth will be concentrated in the developing world, particularly in Africa and Asia. Historically, urbanization has taken place primarily in more developed r