effects of temperature on mortality in chiang mai city, thailand a time series study在清迈城市温度对死亡率的影响,泰国时间序列研究.pdfVIP

Guo et al. Environmental Health 2012, 11:36 /content/11/1/36 RESEARCH Open Access Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand: a time series study Yuming Guo1†, Kornwipa Punnasiri1,2† and Shilu Tong1* Abstract Background: The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method: A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non- external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (=64, 65–74, 75–84, and =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long- term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results: We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non- external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non- external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion: This study indicates that e