古典概型对几何概型的影响以及相关推论数学建模比赛论文.pdf

古典概型对几何概型的影响以及相关推论 THE EFFECT OF CLASSICAL MODELS ON GEOMETRIC MODELS AND SOME CONCLUTIONS ON IT 小组成员 TEAM MENBERS 杨重博;梁旭彬;林中乔 Yang Chongbo ; Liang Xubin ; Lin Zhongqiao 指导老师 Teacher 江秋明；陈森林 Jiang Qiumin ；Chen Senlin INTRODUCTION Our essay begins with a simple and smart probabilistic question given by Martin Gardner. He pointed out in [1] that:” Dividing ten gold coins and ten silver coins into two containers which look the same outside, then randomly choose one of the containers and take out one coin from the chosen container, the probability of taking out a gold coin may change in turns of the change of distribution.” Then it continues the thought of him: How large or how small can the probability be? What if they are not coins but powder? What if there are more than 2 containers? The questions above then lead to some interesting conclusions. For example: In the situation of the ‘powder’ and ‘unlimited containers’, with a particular distribution, we can get either gold or silver ones be chosen 100%. In this way, we went on studying and successfully understood this question more deeply. The reason of the change of probability can not only be explained by ‘different sample space and sample point’ (according to [3] and [4]) but also be explained by ‘THE EFFECT OF CLASSICAL MODELS ON GEOMETRIC MODELS’, which was the root theory we got from the question. According to this theory, we realized that this question can be a useful mathematics model by recognizing gold→A and silver→not A. And that’s what the essay talks about in the example of the application: an explanation of a phen