spatial and temporal association of outbreaks of h5n1 influenza virus infection in wild birds with the 0°c isotherm时空协会暴发h5n1流感病毒感染野生鸟类0°c等温线.pdfVIP

Spatial and Temporal Association of Outbreaks of H5N1 Influenza Virus Infection in Wild Birds with the 0uC Isotherm 1 ˇ 2 3 1 3 Leslie A. Reperant *, Neven S. Fuckar , Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus , Andrew P. Dobson , Thijs Kuiken 1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America, 2 Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America, 3 Department of Virology, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands Abstract Wild bird movements and aggregations following spells of cold weather may have resulted in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 in Europe during the winter of 2005–2006. Waterbirds are constrained in winter to areas where bodies of water remain unfrozen in order to feed. On the one hand, waterbirds may choose to winter as close as possible to their breeding grounds in order to conserve energy for subsequent reproduction, and may be displaced by cold fronts. On the other hand, waterbirds may choose to winter in regions where adverse weather conditions are rare, and may be slowed by cold fronts upon their journey back to the breeding grounds, which typically starts before the end of winter. Waterbirds will thus tend to aggregate along cold fronts close to the 0uC isotherm during winter, creating conditions that favour HPAIV H5N1 transmission and spread. We determined that the occurrence of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in waterbirds in Europe durin