the dynamics, causes and possible prevention of hepatitis e outbreaks动力学、e型肝炎爆发的原因和可能的预防.pdfVIP

The Dynamics, Causes and Possible Prevention of Hepatitis E Outbreaks 1 2 1 1 Betty Nannyonga *, David J. T. Sumpter , Joseph Y. T. Mugisha , Livingstone S. Luboobi 1 Department of Mathematics, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda, 2 Mathematics Department, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden Abstract Rapidly spreading infectious diseases are a serious risk to public health. The dynamics and the factors causing outbreaks of these diseases can be better understood using mathematical models, which are fit to data. Here we investigate the dynamics of a Hepatitis E outbreak in the Kitgum region of northern Uganda during 2007 to 2009. First, we use the data to determine that R0 is approximately 2.25 for the outbreak. Secondly, we use a model to estimate that the critical level of latrine and bore hole coverages needed to eradicate the epidemic is at least 16% and 17% respectively. Lastly, we further investigate the relationship between the co-infection factor for malaria and Hepatitis E on the value of R0 for Hepatitis E. Taken together, these results provide us with a better understanding of the dynamics and possible causes of Hepatitis E outbreaks. Citation: Nannyonga B, Sumpter DJT, Mugisha JYT, Luboobi LS (2012) The Dynamics, Causes and Possible Prevention of Hepatitis E Outbreaks. PLoS ONE 7(7): e41135. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0041135 Editor: Yury E. Khudyakov, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, United States of America Received April 21, 2012; Accepted June 18, 2012; Published July 24, 2012 Copyright: 2012 Nannyonga et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproducti