财政支出竞争对经济影响的门限效应研究-Core.PDF

2015 年2 月 Feb. ，2015 （第29卷第2期） East China Economic Management （Vol.29，No.2） ●“985”高校经济学人计划 ［DOI ］10.3969/j.issn. 1007-5097.2015.02.002 财政支出竞争对经济影响的门限效应研究 ——基于中国省级面板数据的检验 张铭洪，卢晓军，陈 璐 （厦门大学 经济学院，福建 厦门 361000） 摘要：文章通过总结前人研究成果，提出财政支出竞争对经济影响的门限理论假说，并基于1997-2013 年中国各省份 的现实数据，利用门限面板模型进行实证检验。结果表明，财政支出竞争对经济的影响存在显著的门限效应，当地方 经济发展处于较低水平时，财政支出竞争的负效应高于正效应，对经济增长显示出一定的抵制作用；当地方经济发展 处于中、高水平时，财政支出竞争的正效应大于负效应，有利于经济增长。 关键词：财政支出竞争；经济增长；门限面板 中图分类号：F810；F812 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1007-5097 （2015 ）02-005-06 A Research on the Threshold Effects of Fiscal Expenditure Competition on Economy —The Test Based on Provincial Panel Data in China ZHANG Ming-hong ，LU Xiao-jun ，CHEN Lu (School of Economics ，Xiamen University ，Xiamen 361000 ，China) Abstract: Based on summarizing the results of previous studies ，this paper proposes a threshold theory hypothesis of the im⁃ pact of fiscal expenditure competition on the economy ，and applies the threshold panel model to make an empirical test on the hypothesis by using the realistic data of Chinese provinces from 1997 to 2013. The results show that there are significant threshold effects of fiscal expenditure competition on the economy. In the areas with low economic development level ，the neg⁃ ative effect of fiscal expenditure competition are higher than the positive effects ，and show some inhibition on economic growth. In the areas with medium or high economic development level ，the positive effect of fiscal expenditure competition is greater than its negative effects ，which is conducive to economic growth. Keywords: fiscal expe