基于Logistic模型产业集群演化稳定性研究_程胜.pdfVIP

DOI牶牨牥牣牨牫牴牰牳牤j牣cnki牣牨牥牥牴牠牴牨牥牱牣牪牥牥牱牣牥牫牣牥牥牴 7 3 　　　　　　　　　 () Vol.7 No.3 2007 5 Journal of Northwest AF University(Social Science Edition) ay 2007 Logistic ⒇程　胜1, 2 (1. , 　4300741;2. , 　4300742) 　　　:依据产业集群的内在关系, 产业集群有非正式集群、有组织的集群、创新型集群三 个层次或形态, 针对 同演化形态我们分别建立了Logistic模型, 并对稳定平衡态下企业共生经济效益进行了分析和对比, 研究了它们 共生的条件和原因。另外产业集群演化除了能够产生稳定平衡的、周期的动态行为外, 还可能产生混沌的现象, 单 一的线性因果关系 能解释其演化规律;同时产业集群演化所具备的初值依赖性也促使演化混沌的可能产生;在 集群演化混沌状态下,集群的演化发展方向、模式由集群内部企业间共生性和合作稳定性以及外部环境的影响共 同决定。就我国产业集群的发展而言, 要有条件有选择地引导产业集群的形成和发展, 培育和加强集群内部的共 生机制, 应本着区域产业集群与区域经济协同发展的原则,选择适应性的产业集群发展战略。 :产业集群;演化;稳定性;Logistic模型 :F403.3　　　　　　:A :1009-9107(2007)03 -0035 -07 An Analysis of Stability About Industrial Cluster Evolution Based on Logistic Model CHENG Sheng1,2 (1. School of E conomics M anagement,H uazhong Agr icult ure University , Wuhan 4300742; 2. S chool of E conomics , Chi na Uni versi ty of Geosciences, Wuhan 4300741, China) Abstract:The symbiosis conditions and cooperation stability is analyzed through constructing logistic model according to different forms in the industrial cluster evolution process.Chaos may emerge during the process of industrial cluster evolution besides the dynamic action of stabilitym,balance and periodic-i ty.It isvery obvious that linear mode can not explain industrial cluster evolution clearly.However, the dependence of initial condition of industrialclusterevolution may bring about chaos.Inthechaos station, the direction and mode of industrial clusterevolution will be determinedby the symbiosis and cooperation stability between enterprises in the industrial cluster and the outside environment. Then, import