养老设施需求背景下微观尺度城市老年人口预测.pdf

2017年第4期 / 西部人居环境学刊 / 035 ◎城乡基础服务设施规划研究 DOI: 10.13791/ki.hsfwest 方园, 刘声, 阮一晨, 等. 养老设施需求背景下的微观尺度城市老年人口预测[J]. 西部人居环境学刊, 2017, 32(04): 35-41. 养老设施需求背景下的微观尺度城市老年人口预测 Forecast of Micro-Scale Urban Elderly Population Based on the Demands of Pension Facilities 方 园 刘 声 阮一晨 祝立雄 FANG Yang, LIU Sheng, RUAN Yichen, ZHU Lixiong 摘 要 为满足城市养老设施需求，精细 Abstract: To meet the needs of urban pension facilities and fi nely confi gure old-age resources, 化配置养老资源，有必要整体把控城市微 it is necessary to grasp the overall micro-scale urban population development status and trends. 观尺度下的老年人口发展现状与趋势。本文 Based on census data and community reporting data, this paper takes Hangzhou Gongshu 以杭州拱墅区为例，以人口普查数据与社区 District as an example, uses the age shift algorithm to predict the number, density and age 上报数据为基础，运用年龄移算法预测街 structure of the development trend of the elderly population in the street and community level, 道、社区老年人口数量、密度与年龄结构的 and puts forward the corresponding planning recommendations in the size, the spatial layout, 发展趋势，并提出相应的养老设施规模、空 and the composition of the old-age facilities. The results show that the spatial distribution of 间布局、设施组成等规划建议。结果显示， the population at the community level is much larger than that of the street level. The future 社区层面的老年人口分布差异远大于街道层 of urban elderly population will show a rapid growth trend. The density has the characteristic 面，未来城市老年人口将呈高速增长趋势， of the larger the base, the greater the degree of growth.. And the proportion of young people 密度呈“基数越大，增长程度越大”特征， is increasing. Pension facilities planning and updating should be based on the number, density 低龄老人占比呈增长趋势。养老设施规划与 and the age structure of elderly development trends to determine the size of pension facilities 更新中应根据老人数量