全球变化数值模拟.pdf

中国科学院研究生院全球变化课程第十四讲 全球变化数值模拟 丹 利 中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室 中国科学院大气物理研究所 二O一O年五月二十六日 Climate Change Sceptics 质疑一：地球地质史时期出现 过比现在还高的CO 和温度，目 2 前是正常自然变化？ 质疑二：气候变化本身的复杂 性难以预测，气候模式有不确 定性？ 质疑三：2009 年11 月的气候门 事件(Climate Gate) ？ 质疑四：2009 年冬季北半球暴 雪等极冷事件？ …… AGU重申based on the large body of scientific evidence that Earths climate is warming and that human activity is a contributing factor. Science, 23 MAY 2010 Vol. 328,689-690 255名美国科学院院士关于气候变化与科学完整性的公开信 Climate Change and the Integrity of Science WE ARE DEEPLY DISTURBED BY THE RECENT ESCALATION OF POLITICAL ASSAULTS ON SCIENTISTS in general and on climate scientists in particular. But there is nothing remotely identified in the recent events that changes the fundamental conclusions about climate change: (i) The planet is warming due to increased concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. A snowy winter in Washington does not alter this fact. (ii) Most of the increase in the concentration of these gases over the last century is due to human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. (iii) Natural causes always play a role in changing Earth’s climate, but are now being overwhelmed by human-induced changes. (iv) Warming the planet will cause many other climatic patterns to change at speeds unprecedented in modern times, including increasing rates of sea-level rise and