论治理通货紧缩的财政政策（Fiscal policy for deflation）.doc

论治理通货紧缩的财政政策（Fiscal policy for deflation） Fiscal policy for deflation On fiscal policy for managing deflation 2008-12-20 15:15:25 Since 1998, there have been signs of deflation in Chinas economy. From the point of view of the economic trend of 1999, it has entered a stage of deflation, and it is becoming more and more serious. In view of international experience, in the modern market economy, governments always pay attention to the use of fiscal policy to deal with deflation this a crux, so Roosevelt period, so it is the victim of the financial crisis in East asia. Therefore, how to use effective fiscal policies and measures to control deflation is a major problem to be solved urgently. First, the governance of our countrys deflation has become imperative Generally speaking, there are three different views on whether deflation is deflation. First, we consider deflation as a criterion for the overall decline in prices, which we call the single factor theory. Total commodity retail price index of our country since October 1997, 24 consecutive months of the year is negative, the consumer price index rose for 16 consecutive months of negative growth, the production price index is negative for 40 consecutive months. From 1 to April this year, the retail price of commodities dropped by 3.1% compared with the same period of last year, and dropped by 1%. in April, which means that it is now in a period of deflation in March. Two, we think that deflation is a simultaneous decrease of price and a continuous decrease in the supply of money, which is called two factor theory. At present, Chinas money supply shows normal, but in fact, credit has been fully shrinking. 1982~1995 years, 13 years, broad money supply m [2] growth rate is 25.3%, while last years M [2] growth of only 15.3%, compared to a decrease of 10 percentage points. The growth rates of M [1] and m [0] dropped from 26.8% and 24.3% in 1994 to 11.9% and 10.1%.1998 respectively, and the base money supply was basically