两种人口预测模型的精确度比较_以人口年龄移算法和灰色预测模型为例.pdfVIP

2009 1 南京人口管理干部学院学报 Jan. , 2009 25 1 Journal of Nanjing College for Population Programm eM anagem ent Vol. 25 No. 1 1 2 , ( 1. ; 2. , 100 4) [ ]对灰色预测模型人口年龄移算法在人口预测结果中的精确度问题进行了比较研究结 是: ( 1) 灰色预测模型的预测精确度优于人口年龄移算法; ( 2)灰色预测模型残差在小范围内呈波动趋势, 而人口年龄 移算法残差表现为随预测时间的推移而增加的趋势; ( 3)灰色预测模型比人口年龄移算法更适合较长时期的人 口预测 [ ]人口预测; 灰色模型; 人口年龄移算; 精确度 [ ] C923 [] A [] 1007- 032X( 2009) 01- 0029- 04 Abs tract: A comparison w as made bewt een wt o demograph icmodels, gray forecastingmodel(GM ) and themodel of populationsh ift algorithm, to study their accuracy in population projection. The authors have come to three conclusions as follow s: Firstly, GM is more accurate than the other one. Secondly, the residual error ofGM fluc tuates in a small rangew hile the residual error of the othermodel increases as tmi e goes by. Th irdly, the GM is much more adapted to longperiod popu lation projections. K ey w ord s: Popu lation Projections; GM; Popu lationsh iftA lgorithm; Analysis of Accuracy [ 1- 9] [ 10] , , , [ GM ( 1, 1) ] n , , , ; [ 11] 20 70 , , , , , , , , (一)人口年龄移算法 1. 人口年龄移算模型 : , , , [ 12] 2. 人口年龄移算法预测过程 (t+ 1) (x + 1) = tx tx, : P , = P , P ( 1) x+1 t+ 1 x t x [ ] 2008- 10- 0 ; [] 2008- 11- 18 [] ( 1984- ), , , , : ( 1984- ) , , , , : ! 29! 1: P , = P , P P