预测和控制森林火灾模型.pdf

The Method to Predict and Control Forest-fair Yudong Chen ,Jiale Li,Kejia Li Abstract In this paper, we create a simulated forest system which is similar to the Yellowstone National Park. Then we determine the relationship between forest fire frequency and scale by multiple simulations. Taking economic loss and balance of ecology into consideration, we calculate the minimum loss of the forest fire and give some useful suggestions to park manager to control forest fire. For the first question, we take the quality of the trees burned as the stan- dard to weight the loss of forest fire. Then models are given to this question. We assume that forest is composed with only one kind of tree in model one.We construct integer model in which we take tree’s uneven distribu- tion into consideration. Then, make the model more easily to solve, we simply integer model to boolean mode when assume that trees distribute uniformed. And we prove that fire frequency and scale satisfies power-law relationship in Boolean model. In integer model, fire frequency and scale satisfies power-law relationship when fire scale is small. In model two, we take more factors into consideration, such as natural anti-fire coefficient, human anti-fire coefficient, geography isolation belt, burning probability ,value of tolerance to forest fire, dynamic speed of fire spread. After sim- ulation, we find that it will lead to a devastating forest fire with 1381km2 burned accounting for 18.1%of total forest if tolerance rate is 0. While the 2 tolerance rate is 5%, 617km forest will be burned , which account for 8.1% of the forest. And our result is similar to the result of the fire in 1988. At last, we reach the conclusion that the logarithm of forest fire scale and s