陕西省苹果单产非线性预测模型研究[J].pdf

中国农学通报 2012,28(25):248-251 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 陕西省苹果单产非线性预测模型研究 刘 璐，王景红，屈振江，高 峰，柴 芊，梁 轶 （陕西省经济作物气象服务台，西安710014） 摘 要：为了更好地服务陕西省苹果产业发展，客观定量预测陕西省苹果产量，为政府部门制定苹果产销 及产业发展提供科学决策依据，选择影响苹果产量的主要气候资源为预测因子，利用非线性回归分析方 法，对陕西省5 个苹果主要生产基地县分别建立单产气象因子非线性回归预测模型。模型检验显示，5 县各年苹果单产预测的准确率均达64% 以上，且该模式能够较准确地反映各县苹果单产情况，预测效果 较好。该预测模型是对苹果产量预测技术方法的首次尝试，思路清晰、可操作性强，可为其他省份建立 苹果产量预测方法及其他经济林果产量预测方法提供借鉴。 关键词：苹果；非线性预测模型；产量预测 中图分类号：P49 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2012-1230 ResearchonNon-linearRegressionModelofMeteorologicalFactors forAppleYieldinShaanxiProvince Liu Lu, Wang Jinghong, Qu Zhenjiang, Gao Feng, Chai Qian, Liang Yi (TheShaanxiProvinceMeteorologicalServingAuthorityofEconomicalCrop, Xi ’an 710014) Abstract:In order to serve apple industry development and provide scientific decisions to the development of apple production and marketing for Shaanxi Province, objective and quantitative prediction model of apple production was found. By using meteorological conditions as predictor, which affected apple production, taking non-linear regression model as method, non-linear regression model of meteorological factors for apple yields were established for 5 apple production base counties in Shaanxi Province. The models checking results showed that accuracy rate was over 64%, and the models could accurately reflect the yield. The models were the first time to forecast apple yield, and they were clear thinking and operable, which could provide a reference to other provinces to forecast apple yield, or to forecast the yield for other economic fruits. Keywords:apple; non-linear regression model; yield forecast 0 引言