石油和天然气在华尔街股市.pptVIP

Oil and Gas on Wall Streetnormal and abnormal times Value, catalysts, fundamentals (macro and micro), trading vs investing Easy answer: pay 1/3 of long run oil price for a barrel in the ground. Go golfing. Hard answer: market collapse means liquidity is King…forced selling, compelling value…but where are the buyers? Not golfing. Duane Grubert, CRT Capital Group (ex-Unocal) U.S. Oil and Gas Basins/Sector Insights MANY MANY CHOICES by producers Oil vs gas, fast vs slow, onshore vs offshore, deep vs shallow, (domestic vs foreign), exploration vs development maturity, limited vs long term upside, takeover appeal, link to compensation incentives Wall Street perspective on those choices Impact on value Impact on sentiment Impact on takeover attraction Discounting tricks of the trade Energy career perspective dgrubert@ Duane Grubert Stanford Petroleum Engineer 1983, MBA 1986 Unocal 1983-2000 (industry experience turns out to be very useful on Wall Street) California heavy oil ’83-87 Alaskan waterflood, deals, frac patent? ’87-92 Los Angeles HQ Planning ’92-94 (numbers cruncher) Bangkok, Thailand planning, deals, contracts ’94-98 L.A. HQ, working with office of CEO ’98-’00 (jet set, Asia and South America) Wall Street 2000-now, Sellside analyst Sanford Bernstein (famous research only firm), Fulcrum, Execution (less famous, research only) CRT Capital Group (less famous firm, adds banking) Who am I? ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Stamford HarborStamford, Connecticut ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Stamford HarborStamford, Connecticut Energy Sell Side Analyst What I do for a living: Specialist on around a dozen companies, knowledgable on another dozen+ Generalist on independent e and p space, macro markets Specialist on natural gas International industry and technical background is a vital differentiator Write research, thought partner with decision makers: investors and industry