气象学--5-5--温室效应专用课件.ppt

Whats Known for Certain? That gases like carbon dioxide and methane are greenhouse gases. That we are increasing the amount of these gases into the atmosphere. That most of this is due to burning fossil fuels We have measured the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. What are the early warning signs ? The Earth has warmed up. There has been a warming of 0.50C ( 10F) in the last 100 years. Warning signs include: Heat waves. Sea level rising. Glaciers melting. Coastal flooding. Arctic and Antarctic warming. What are we Uncertain about ? How much of global warming can be blamed on humans? How much can be blamed on natural climate change? How high will temperatures rise? How fast they will rise? What will the effect on local climates be? * * 字去的不干净，中国的增暖的原因简介，20-40是自然变化，80以后是人类作用。少用距平等，用增加、减少 * * * Point the regions where the warming will be greatest * * * * * * * * * * * 模式对未来气候情景的预估 Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase during the 21st century Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990 Mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88m by 2100, but with significant regional variations Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase Higher maximum temperatures; more hot days and heatwaves over nearly all land areas (very likely) Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold days frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely) more intense precipitation events over many areas (very likely) increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely) increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity, mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely) Increased mortality in old peopl