底板突水危险性评价专家系统及应用研究-岩石力学与工程学报.PDF

第 28 卷 第 2 期 岩石力学与工程学报 Vol.28 No.2 2009 年 2 月 Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering Feb .，2009 底板突水危险性评价专家系统及应用研究 高延法，章延平，张慧敏，王世法 ( 中国矿业大学，北京 100083) 摘要：矿井底板突水危险性评价涉及到水文地质、工程地质、开采条件及岩石力学等诸多因素，是一个复杂的理 论与技术问题，底板突水危险性评价专家系统正是针对这一难点，将底板突水领域专家经验和理论成果等与计算 机人工智能技术相结合，采用突水系数法和突水优势面两条推理途径，提出并运用典型突水案例加权类比的推理 策略，初步具备了底板灰岩岩溶发育状况与隐伏断裂构造的预测功能。系统建立内容较为丰富的典型突水案例、 专家经验、突水研究理论成果和防治水措施等四类知识库，能够对矿井是否会发生底板突水、突水点位置以及突 水类型等做出预测与评价，并具有较强的咨询功能。应用该系统进行实际突水案例的模拟分析，评价结果与实际 情况吻合较好。底板突水危险性评价专家系统将对矿井底板水害防治具有一定的实用价值。 关键词：采矿工程；底板突水；专家系统；危险性评价；预测预报 中图分类号：TD 163 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000 –6915(2009)02 –0253 –06 RESEARCH ON EXPERT SYSTEM FOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF WATER INRUSH FROM COAL FLOOR AND ITS APPLICATION GAO Yanfa，ZHANG Yanping ，ZHANG Huimin ，WANG Shifa (China University of Mining and Technology，Beijing 100083，China) Abstract ：Risk assessment of water inrush from coal floor is a complex problem of theory and technology ，which is concerned with hydrogeology，engineering geology，mining conditions and rock mechanics. To aim at the above-mentioned problem，the expert system for risk assessment of water inrush from coal floor is combined with experts experiences and theoretical achievements with artificial intelligence technology ，adopting two inferred methods ，which are the water inrush coefficient and the preferred water inrush plane. The inference strategy of weighted analogy analysis of typical water inrush cases is put forward. This system is basically capable of forecasting the development of limestone karst and potential fault structure below the coal floor.