最新财经资讯第54期总第164期国际司2019目录全球.docVIP

最 新 财 经 资 讯 第54期 （总第164期） 国际司 2014-4-9 目 录 全球 IMF：全球经济衰退风险下降 如何重启全球经济增长？ 亚洲 亚洲货币战即将重演 日本央行维持宽松货币政策 中国央行无意终止人民币贬值 中国可以避免“明斯基时刻” IMF cuts downturn danger to near zero NYT | April8, 2014 The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said a stronger recovery in rich countries such as the US and UK had sharply reduced the risks of another global downturn. Although the fund forecast global growth of 3.6 per cent in 2014, rising to 3.9 per cent next year, it warned that the world still faced “years of slow and subpar growth” unless countries embarked on structural reforms to improve their growth. The fund’s World Economic Outlook now estimates only a 0.1 per cent probability of global recession in 2014, compared with a 6 per cent chance last October, with similarly reduced risks for 2015. Most of the IMF’s forecasts were little changed, with expectations of stronger growth in the US, the UK and Germany boosting the outlook. Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF, said: “I think the recovery is strongest in the US in that, for the most part, the brakes are gone. People can borrow at low rates and the fiscal consolidation is now fairly slow?.?.?.?In a way it is pulling the world.” The IMF has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK more than any other advanced economy to 2.9 per cent this year, although it criticises what it calls Britain’s credit-fuelled household spending. The fund has dropped its opposition to the government’s austerity drive, saying “the government’s efforts to raise capital spending while staying within the medium-term fiscal envelope should help bolster recovery and long-term growth”. The fund expects the US to expand 2.8 per cent this year, the eurozone to regain momentum with a 1.2 per cent expansion and Japan to maintain its recent trajectory with 1.4 per cent growth. Although prospects for large emerging economies have dimmed, the IMF expects growth to remain robust, recovering gradually from 4.7 pe