伊犁河流域春季融雪型洪水危险性评价与区划-中国气象局图书馆.PDFVIP

Special 专题 伊犁河流域春季融雪型洪水危险性评价与区划 1 1 2 1 1 刘鑫 赵鲁强 刘娜 惠建忠 唐千红 (1 中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京 100081；2 国家气象信息中心，北京 100081) 提要：将春季融雪型洪水发生最为频繁的伊犁河流域作为研究区，选取高程、坡度、地形起伏度、与水系距离、土地利 用/覆被、冬季积雪深度作为春季融雪型洪水的影响因子，利用GIS技术和信息量模型定量计算了春季融雪型洪水的危险 性，并基于总信息量最终将研究区域划分为极高度、高度、中度、低度和极低度等5个等级危险区。研究表明：春季融 雪型洪水灾害主要沿河谷地带发生，并且与冬季积雪深度、农田等分布相一致，灾害点与危险性区划具有很好的空间相 关性，运用信息量模型开展春季融雪型洪水危险性区划具有较好的科学客观性和业务应用价值，可为该区内的春季融雪 型洪水精细化预报提供有力的技术支撑，可为防灾减灾决策服务提供参考依据。 关键词：春季融雪型洪水，危险性评价，信息量模型，伊犁河流域 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2016.06.006 Risk Evaluation of the Spring Snowmelt Flood in Ili River Basin and It’s Mapping 1 1 2 1 1 Liu Xin , Zhao Luqiang , Liu Na , Hui Jianzhong , Tang Qianhong (1 Public Service Centre of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 2 National Meteorological Information Centre, Beijing 100081) Abstract: This paper evaluates the risk of the spring snowmelt flooding, which is often occured in the Ili River Basin, based on GIS technology, information quantity model and impact factors including elevation, topographic relief degree, slope, distance from the river system, land use/cover types and winter snow depth. According to the final comprehensive information quantity, the spring snowmelt flooding hazard may be divided into five grades: very high, high, moderate, low and very low. Results show that the spring snowmelt floods concentrated mainly along the zonal river valley in the Ili River Basin, and are consistent with the distribution of winter snow-belt and farmland. The site number of spring snowmelt flooding hazards is positively correlated with the hazard grades. It is shown that the method based