基于gis的湖北西部烟草种植气象灾害危险性分析-中国农业气象.pdfVIP

中国农业气象（Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology ） 2015 年 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362. 2015.05.013 孟丹,陈正洪,李建平,等.基于 GIS 的湖北西部烟草种植气象灾害危险性分析[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(5):625-630 基于 GIS 的湖北西部烟草种植气象灾害危险性分析* 孟 丹 1 ，陈正洪 1** ，李建平 2 ，阳 威 1 ，何 飞 1 ，陈振国 2 （1. 湖北省气象服务中心，武汉 430205 ；2. 湖北省烟草科学研究院，武汉 430030 ） 摘要：利用湖北西部及邻近地区 65 个气象站 1961-2010 年的常规观测资料，参考气象学指标，应用专家打 分、层次分析法和灾害危险性评估模型，借助 GIS 平台对湖北西部烟草种植气象灾害危险性的区域分布进行 分析 。结果表明：影响湖北西部烟草种植的主要气象灾害 干旱、低温冷害、连阴雨、暴雨和高温热害，其 干旱危险性分布表现为北高南低、东高西低；连阴雨和暴雨危险性南高北低；低温冷害危险性南北分布较均 匀，东部小于西部；高温热害危险性北高南低。总体 来，鄂西北烟草种植区气象灾害危险性表现为东高西 低，南北 向无明显规律，而鄂西南地区则为南高北低。气象灾害危险性区划结果与烟草种植适宜性区划结果 相辅相成，可为烟草种植合理布局及防灾减灾提供依据 。 关键词：鄂西；烟草；气象灾害；危险性指数；分布 Analysis on Meteorological Disasters Risk of Tobacco Planting Based on GIS in Western Hubei Province 1 1 2 1 1 2 MENG Dan , CHEN Zheng-hong , LI Jian-ping , YANG Wei , HE Fei , CHEN Zhen-guo (1 .Hubei Meteorological Service Center, Wuhan 430205, China; 2. Hubei Academy of Tobacco Science, Wuhan 430030) Abstract ：Based on conventional observed data at 65 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 in western Hubei province, the regional distribution of meteorological disasters risk of tobacco planting in this region was analyzed, by using expert estimation model, the AHP and disaster risk assessment model and the platform of GIS. The results showed that drought, chilling damage, continuous rain, rainstorm and heat injury were the major meteorological disaster in the process of tobacco growing. Drought risk was higher in the north than that of in the south, and eastern area was higher than the west. The risk of continuous rain and rainstorm were both higher in the south tha