宏观经济学ch18.ppt

Chapter overview This chapter surveys the most prominent work on consumption: John Maynard Keynes: consumption and current income Irving Fisher and Intertemporal Choice Franco Modigliani: the Life-Cycle Hypothesis Milton Friedman: the Permanent Income Hypothesis Robert Hall: the Random-Walk Hypothesis David Laibson: the pull of instant gratification Keynes’s Conjectures(推测) 0 MPC 1 APC falls as income rises where APC  = average propensity to consume  = C/Y Income is the main determinant of  consumption. The Keynesian Consumption Function A consumption function with the properties Keynes conjectured: The Keynesian Consumption Function Early Empirical Successes:  Results from Early Studies Households with higher incomes: consume more ? MPC 0 save more ? MPC 1 save a larger fraction of their income ? APC ? as Y ? Very strong correlation between income and consumption ? income seemed to be the main  determinant of consumption Problems for the  Keynesian Consumption Function Based on the Keynesian consumption function, economists predicted that C would grow more slowly than Y over time. This prediction did not come true: As incomes grew, the APC did not fall, and C grew just as fast. Simon Kuznets showed that C/Y was very stable in long time series data. The Consumption Puzzle Irving Fisher and Intertemporal Choice The basis for much subsequent(后来的) work on consumption. Assumes consumer is forward-looking and chooses consumption for the present and future to maximize lifetime satisfaction. Consumer’s choices are subject to an intertemporal budget constraint, a measure of the total resources available for present and future consumption The basic two-period model Period 1: the present Period 2: the future Notation Y1 is income in period 1 Y2 is income in period 2 C1 is consumption in period 1 C2 is consumption in period 2 S = Y1 - C1 is saving in period 1 (S 0 if the consumer borrows in period 1) Deriving the  inte