全球经济展望——2016年第四季.pptx

Global Economic Outlook4th Quarter 2016CONTENTSGlobal Economic OutlookGlobal Economic OutlookIntroduction | 2By Ira KalishIn the Q4 issue of the Global Economic Outlook, our far-flung economists offer their views on the United States, Eurozone, China, Japan, India, Rus- sia, Brazil, Canada, and helicopter money.United States: Growth remains muted, but finally good news on family income | 6By Patricia BuckleyGrowth in the first half of 2016 was slow, although preliminary data are pointing to a stronger second half. Continued job growth and increasing family incomes bode well for future demand.Eurozone: Dealing with Brexit | 12By Alexander B?rschThe direct economic effects of Brexit have so far been relatively muted, thanks to central banks’ decisions. But this does not imply there will be no serious long-term consequences, as risks stemming from a potential disruption of trade relations have not disappeared.China: Debating debt and investment | 18By Ira KalishNew studies debate whether China’s debt level is excessive and dangerous, and whether the massive investment in infrastructure did actually create economic value. Meanwhile, new data from the Chi- nese government indicate that the economy appears to be stabilizing.Japan: Two arrows too many | 22By Akrur BaruaThe Bank of Japan seems to have run out of moves to strengthen the economy through monetary pol- icy. Quantitative easing and negative interest rates have had little effect. Now the bank is targeting the long end of the yield curve by keeping 10-year bond yields close to zero.India: Finding new feet through reforms | 30By Rumki MajumdarWhile sluggish investment, mining and construc- tion activities, and farm output in Q1 raised concerns about the Indian economy, recent reforms, such as the bankruptcy code and the goods and services tax, are expected to improve business senti- ments and ease of doing business.Russia: Too early for optimism | 38By Lester GunnionSigns indicate that Russia’s recession might be c