群邑：2017年全球广告花费预测WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS.pptx

WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS This Year Next Year December 2016 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 3 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS DECEMBER 2016 2 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS DECEMBER 2016 Introduction CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 2 BRAZIL 8 CANADA 12 CHINA 16 GERMANY 20 INDIA 24 RUSSIA 28 UNITED KINGDOM 32 UNITED STATES 36 MARKETING SERVICES 40 The IMF forecasts aggregate global GDP picking up in nominal Media summary terms from 4.4% in 2016 to 5.2% in 2017. General price inflation is baked into those numbers, and the IMF and other forecasters have this creeping up in 2017 in the belief governments and central banks are growing less doctrinaire about controlling it. The IMF’s 3.3% global aggregate CPI for 2017 would still be lower 193,655 187,492 spending power, but not enough to hand back much pricing 183,049 176,422 power to hunkered-and-bunkered advertisers. As recessionary 166,793 Brazil observes, shopping around becomes a habit, and it favors digital media. 94,847 99,896 92,062 93,261 The main change to world’s economic outlook now compared to investment decisions. Some of this is transitory (energy prices), 38,772 some more enduring (China’s structural adjustment), some 36,412 14,521 15,832 18,085 CFOs despair this grinding global recovery will ever reach 12,472 13,789 16,952 “escape velocity”. GDP growth mathematics therefore increases dependence on government and consumer demand. Relative to North Latin Western Central Asia Pacific North Asia Asean Middle East consumers, governments are small and indebted. Consumers are America America Europe Eastern Europe (all) East Africa just indebted. Against this slow-low background our new ad forecasts are 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f not much changed, with global ad growth continuing to shadow North America 157,600 159,784 164,834 171,118 174,824 179,899 183,049 188,675 193,655 nominal GDP at 4.3% in 2016 (last time 4.4%) and 4.4% in 2017 (5.2%