基于多重工作假说的水文模拟理论与框架.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2014, 3, 395-403 Published Online October 2014 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2014.35048 Theory and Framework of Hydrological Modeling Based on Multiple Working Hypotheses Kairong Lin1,2, Yang Hu1,2 1 Department of Water Resource and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 2 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Guangzhou Email: linkr@ nd th th Received: Sep. 22 , 2014; revised: Sep. 29 , 2014; accepted: Oct. 6 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Due to complexity of environment system and impact of climate change and human activity, there are many uncertainties in hydrological modeling and forecasting, which affect the reliability and practicability of the simulation and prediction results to some degree. To solve this problem, a framework of hydrological modeling based on multiple working hypotheses was presented, in- cluding developing a hydrological model based on CORBA (Common Object Request Broker Archi- tecture), to provide more alterative model hypotheses and parameter based on characteristics of climate and underlying in study basin, for model hypothesis testing; and establishing a multi-fac- tors diagnostic approach based on Bayesian theory for model evaluation. Multiple working hypo- theses for hydrological modeling will benefit the improvement of the hydrological forecasting theory and accuracy, and provide the scientifi