Liquidity Challenges at Nord Pool Breaking the Cycle - APEx：流动性的挑战，在北池打破循环尖.pptVIP

7 October 2004 Université Paris IX Dauphine Managing risk in electricity markets and market liquidity Main issues in the Nordic countries Torger Lien President CEO Nord Pool ASA NP Spot volumes  NP Spot volumes (2002 – 2004 in GWh) Financial market volumes 2002, 2003 and 2004 Clearing volumes  2002, 2003 and 2004 Prices at Nord Pool Reservoir level  Norway + Sweden + Finland Shares pr. Country 2004 System price / area price System price / area price Exchange capacity The Nordic Market no 3 in Europe European power exchanges - comparison For further information, please visit: Reflections on the “very high” power price Replacement cost Gas fired, coal based, hydropower, wind generation 30 ?re/KWh+? Coal and oil prices Oil from 18 to 30 USD/bbl, coal from 45 to 75 USD/ton Marginal production cost coal based from 13 to 24 ?re/KWh CO2 uncertainty Consequence on marginal production cost coal based 10-20% price increase? Market price electricity European continent 30 ?re/KWh+ daily variations Reservoir level  Norway *Copyright ? Nord Pool ASA 2002 Turnover in TWh 1993 - 2003 Exchange Norway and Nordic region 2000 - 2004 -800 000 -600 000 -400 000 -200 000 0 200 000 400 000 600 000 MWh/h ukemid. To From From week 20 to week 46 2002 Norway exported 9.6 TWh Summer and fall 2002 From week 47 2002 to week 22 2003 Norway imported 7.1 TWh In 2000 Norway exported 19 TWh Exchange with Poland, Germany and Russia Import so far this year 7.6 TWh 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Prospex research 2003, chart is based on estimated consumption growth of 1,5% per year GE Norway: 154 UK: 10 The Netherlands: 4 USA: 2 CH: 1 Germany: 3 France 1 Denmark: 21 Sweden: 81 Finland: 39 Total: 318 Located in 12 countries Russia: 1 Belgum: 1 Number of participants *Copyright ? Nord Pool ASA 2002